CO2 Endangerment Ruling Challenged
Aluminium Long-Term Outlook Q2 Update
Workshop to Estimate GHG Slated
Contech Seeks Ch. 7 Conversion
Preliminary Mechanical Properties of T5 Heat Treated Conventional C380 Die Castings
$20 20th Anniversary Book Sale
Draft of Report Suppressed at EPA Shows Why Agency’s Career Staff Challenged CO2 Endangerment Ruling
‘We have become increasingly concerned that EPA and many other agencies… have paid too little
attention to the science of global warming’ -- EPA staff
June 26, 2009
Statement of U.S. Rep. Joe Barton
Ranking Member, House Energy and Commerce Committee
“The impact of revelations that the Environmental Protection Agency and the Obama administration have
suppressed dissent within the career professional ranks at EPA became clear today after a draft
version of the report on EPA’s carbon dioxide endangerment finding became available. Internal e-mails
that followed the final report had already demonstrated a political atmosphere that chilled any
opinions but those approved by the Obama administration and EPA Administrator Lisa Jackson. Now we
know why.
“I demand that the EPA release the final report so the public and Congress can consider its impact
before the House votes today on the Waxman-Markey legislation, a bill driven by the premise of the
EPA’s endangerment finding.
“EPA has not yet released the final, suppressed report that was written by career EPA staffers Dr.
Alan Carlin and Dr. John Davidson, an MIT Ph.D. economist and a University of Michigan Ph.D.
physicist, respectively. But here’s some of what they write in the 80-page draft report:
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Aluminium Long-Term Outlook Q2 Update
According to Brooke Hunt, industrial production growth is set to
average 3.1% p.a. over the period 2009 to 2020, up slightly from 2.7% p.a. for the period 2000 to
2008. China is expected to lead growth with IP anticipated to increase 10.1% in 2009 – 2020.
The economic recession which followed the failure of some western financial institutions and banks ten
months ago was initially expected to have only a small effect on Chinese growth. However, the
resultant collapse in worldwide demand and subsequent collapse in requirement for Chinese exported
products has had a significant effect on the economy of China. The most recent trade data suggests
that the fall in demand for Chinese goods may be bottoming out but the trends indicated by these
figures do not carry across to the Chinese aluminium market. We expect aluminium demand to fall by 1%
in 2009 to 12.7Mt. This contrasts with compound average annual growth of 17.9% p.a. seen over the
first eight years of this decade.
As a large section of the global economy slid into recession in late 2008 and into 2009 global
aluminium demand has been destroyed, particularly in mature economies and has led to a forecast
surplus in 2009 of 2.5Mt. Although we are forecasting a 6% drop in smelter production in 2009, a
greater decline of 8.3% is forecast for demand. Stocks are therefore expected to continue to rise in
2009 reaching 102 days of consumption. For the market to be balanced with the current consumption
forecast production would need to fall by 12% in 2009. Brook Hunt is forecasting that LME cash prices
will decrease from the 2008 average of $2571/t, to $1445/t in 2009. We have allowed for 70kt, 4.9Mt
and 8.3Mt of curtailments in 2009, 2010 and 2011 respectively as prices cut into the cost curve. The
significant volume of curtailed capacity will act as a cap on prices over the period 2012-2020.
Our analysis of long-run aluminium incentive prices that will provide sufficient incentive (15% IRR)
to justify the expansion of capacity to meet incremental demand growth indicates that a price of
~$1928/t ($2009) is required.
Our base case supply forecast is seen as more than adequate to meet projected demand of 57Mt in 2020,
equivalent to 3.5% per annum growth. The base case supply forecast can meet projected demand growth
of 4.2% per annum, while the combination of Base case and projects in our highly probable category can
meet demand growth of 5% per annum through 2020.
SGA production is estimated at 72.4Mt in 2009, down 10.4% y-o-y and is forecast to grow at 4% per
annum to 88Mt in 2014 when capacity utilization is projected at 92%. Consequently, we forecast modest
spot price appreciation through 2014 from current levels of $210/t to average $270/t or 14.5% of the
LME aluminium cash price. Furthermore, there is little or no risk of being capacity constrained
through 2020.
Workshop to Estimate GHG Slated
NADCA & CMETT Case Western Reserve University are sponsoring an Energy Efficiency Workshop: Effects of
Cap & Trade on Die Casting on Aug. 5 at Ryobi Die Casting in Shelbyville, IN.
The event includes eight presentations as well as a tour of Ryobi Die Casting.
The keynote presentation, by NADCA’s project engineer Alex Monroe, is an Overview of the Effects of
Cap & Trade, Greenhouse Gas and Carbon Footprints on Die Casting. The presentation will discuss the
cap and trade bill — The American Clean Energy & Security Act of 2009 — which was recently passed in
the House of Representatives. The bill aims at limiting the total Greenhouse Gas emissions throughout
the United States to 42% below 2005 levels by 2020. As a result, energy costs will dramatically
increase for all die casters in the coming years. Energy efficiency programs in plants will be
critical to adapt to this tough legislation. This presentation will give an overview of this cap and
trade bill, identify the Greenhouse Gases emitted by die casters and address how to calculate one’s
carbon footprint in order to reduce energy costs.
To register or for more information, visit www.diecasting.org/meetings. Registration deadline is July
24.
Contech Seeks Ch. 7 Conversion
Law360, New York (July 06, 2009) -- Auto parts maker Contech U.S. LLC is seeking to exchange its
Chapter 11 bankruptcy filing for Chapter 7, saying that, despite its best efforts to shore up value in
the anemic U.S. auto market, liquidation is the only option to salvage remaining compensation for its
creditors.
Less than six months after first filing for Chapter 11 protection, Portage, Mich.-based Contech U.S.,
a light-metal die casting and machining company that manufactured advanced metal components for major
U.S....
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Preliminary Mechanical Properties of T5 Heat Treated Conventional C380 Die Castings
T5 heat treating is a very simple treatment that involves water quenching the castings immediately
after ejection from the die followed by heating in a furnace at temperatures between 150ºC and 180ºC
(300ºF to 355ºF). T5 heat treating can provide significant strength improvements while avoiding the
complex solution heat treatment required when fully heat treating castings to the T6 temper. A
preliminary study was done to assess the mechanical properties of the T5 heat-treated conventional
C380 die castings. To read the study in the July issue of Die Casting Engineer,
click here to login.
$20 20th Anniversary Book Sale
Visit
www.diecasting.org/publications now for drastically reduced publications. Over 30 books have
had their prices cut to only $20 in celebration of NADCA’s 20th Anniversary. All discounts will
appear at checkout. Membership discounts do not apply. This offer is valid through September 8th.
